Brace yourself for MORE heatwaves! Temperatures will be 'unusually warm' for the next four years, increasing the risk of devastating floods, wildfires, and hurricanes worldwide
- The latest research follows one of the worst summer heatwaves in history
- Scientists used models to predict the routinely high temperatures until 2022
- Extreme heat will become more common, likely leading to drought and wildfires
The next four years will be 'anomalously warm' worldwide, scientists have warned.
New research suggests unusual heat will become commonplace until 2022 – leading to more wildfires, drought, and increased probability of 'extreme' temperatures.
Scientists predict that water in the oceans will warm faster than air above land, which increases the risks of floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones worldwide.
These extreme weather events could prove fatal for people across the globe.
The new research is the latest in a string of scientific studies to show the impact greenhouse gases and pollution will have on global temperatures.
It follows a record-breaking summer where vast swathes of the globe experienced scorching temperatures and crippling drought.
Britain saw temperatures of 35.3°C (95.2°F) this summer – just a few degrees shy of the all-time record set in 1976, when the heatwave was so prolonged the government was forced to appoint a Minister for Drought.
In Japan, more than 57,000 people were hospitalised with heat stroke and 90 people died as a result of the heatwave this summer, officials say.
A heatwave in Quebec in eastern Canada has been blamed for 70 deaths, while more than 80 million people in the United States were placed under a heat warning in July. Rising temperatures also killed 65 in Karachi, Pakistan this summer.
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The next four years will be 'anonymously warm', according to scientists. As well as increased temperatures, the research found that the likelihood of extreme temperatures will also be much higher (stock)
The latest research, published today in Nature Communications, used a statistical model to predict the rise in surface air temperatures worldwide.
The study – a collaboration between France's CNRS, the University of Southampton, and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – mined data from 10 existing climate change models, or simulations, to determine which did the most effective job of capturing how natural factors are contributing to the planet’s temperature.
Once scientists had determined the most accurate models, these were used to project forward to see how these factors will play out over the next five years.
According to the models, the Earth is set to get warmer in the coming years because of its natural fluctuations of temperatures.
This will increase the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and man-made climate change in the coming years, scientist warned, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, including floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones.
From 1998 to 2010, the opposite was true.
The natural fluctuations in temperature – which are caused by ocean circulation and weather systems – cooled the planet and offset man-made climate change, creating a global warming 'hiatus'.
Dr Joe Fontaine, a lecturer and fire ecologist from Murdoch University, said: 'Warmer temperatures mean that the moderating effects of rain on bushfire will be reduced substantially.
'These changes are yet another reflection of how climate change is happening now and is no longer a problem for future generations.'
Not only will natural disasters such as droughts and wildfires become more common and more devastating in the next few years, but they will also be more deadly.
Dr Fontaine says the link between death rates and prolonged bouts of unbearable heat is now inarguable.
For the mathematical model, the researchers accounted for two main factors – external forces (red) and the natural variability on Earth (yellow).The total warming effect (black) will see a period of unusually warm weather in the next four years
Natural variability will reinforce the long-term warming trend between the years of 2018 and 2022. This will lead to an increase in temperature extremes (Stock Image)
'Heat waves have been clearly linked to greater human death rates, accelerated global warming, and a raft of ecological impacts,' he said.
'For example, in Western Australia the heat wave in summer 2010-2011 left behind dead coral and sea grass, dead trees, depleted fisheries and decreased populations of penguins and endangered black cockatoos.'
Dr Susie Burke, a senior psychologist in environment and disaster response at the Australian Psychological Society agreed, saying the health concerns are more ubiquitous than merely physical ailments.
She said: 'Extreme heat has been noted to increase hospital admissions for mood and behavioural disorders, like depression, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, and dementia.
'Researchers have also found links between heat and increases in violence, aggression, crime, domestic violence, riots and civil war.'
Dr Sam Dean, a scientist at the New Zealand-based National Institute of Water and Atmospheric (NIWA) said that although nothing is known for sure, the likelihood is that thee predictions will come true.
Dr Dean said: 'This article, as well as work by forecast centres such as the UK Met Office, are predicting that these particularly hot years could carry on for a while now as part of this natural variability in the oceans.
'While we can't be sure exactly how things will play out, at the moment the odds are higher for hot years.'
According to the authors of the study, the forecast can be completed in a matter of seconds – opening up the possibility of real-time forecasting on personal devices such as smartphones.
For the mathematical model, the researchers accounted for two main factors – external forces, like greenhouse gas emissions, and the natural variability on Earth.
While modelling the external forces is quite predictable due to the tendency to follow socioeconomic patterns, predicting natural variability for more accurate multi-year climate forecasts is a difficult task.
Florian Sevellec and Sybren Drijfhout tackled the issue by integrating transfer operators ― a method of statistical analysis that helps understand chaotic behaviour in a system.
Dr Paul Read from the University of Melbourne: 'The model works for both land and sea measures since 1880 so it has internal validity as well as reliability in testing backwards in time. So it works forward in time.
'In my area it'll be extremely useful for planning in emergency services for natural disasters like bushfires, although their predictions to 2022 don't bode well for the next few years on that front.'
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